Here are my thoughts on the poker problem posed yesterday:

The answer here is a fold. Terrence (I actually prodded him to comment on this just so I had somebody who was clearly in my corner):

Fold. Every time. Kings just aren't going to hold up against three other players, and that's assuming they're good right now, which they almost can't be. I know people do stupid things online, and obviously at least two people in this hand exemplify this. But raise, reraise, push push push seems to mean aces exist somewhere. Even the guy in front of you could have them, looking to just call and trap the cutoff. I can't ever see myself calling in this spot.

Kings are a weak hand in this position. Assume for a moment that you discount anybody having aces, and let's break this down mathematically with possible hands:

• Let's say you're against 3 lower pocket pairs (which would probably be the most ideal realistic situation). The odds of you winning with KK against three lower pockets is 52.6%. Percentage-wise, the previous question could also be phrased: On the third hand of a SNG with relatively deep stacks, you raise with 55 and are faced against a reraise with AK. The person then flips the cards face-up and you have to decide whether to call. Do you do it?. Sure, in this case you have the ability to go up 4x, but elimination is elimination, and a chip lead this early in a tournament blinds so low is not necessarily going to improve your pcts to win the whole tourney.
• If aces were to be discounted as a possible hand, the most realistic situation (and the one I thought I was in when I played this hand) was to be up against AK suited, a big pocket (QQ or JJ) and a drawing hand (mid-suited connectors). Small blind could easily have pushed with QQ/JJ, while cut-off calls with AK suited (which is an understandable move). Mid-position before me has the pot odds to call with suited connectors (he was a loose type, so I figured he was gambling), and that left me with the best hand pre-flop. However, in a situation with KK vs. AKs vs. QQ vs 76s, the odds of KK winning are only 37%.

Given that I've put in 10% of my stack (200 of 1700), and that blinds are still 15-30, I still have 50xBB, which means I've still got a deep stack to play the sng. If I lost this hand, I would have 200 chips (7xBB) which would put me in a bad position. Bert raises an interesting point: if you're left with 400 chips (a little more than 10xBB) and you KNOW there are no aces out there, it may be worth the gamble... (there's a relevant article about dealing with tournaments with a medium stack here which sorta addresses the reasons why i would fold.)

I ended up folding this hand with KK. I figured that small-blind has a smaller pocket, but I was unsure what the cut-off had. I would have put a coin flip on cut-off having AA (which means my odds to win the pot were ridiculously small.

As it turns out, the hands that played were: QQ (small blind), AhKh, 7d6d. The board ended up being 4c7hJd8h8c.

An even MORE interesting question is: Would you fold aces in the exact same position?