To take a quick break from working, I decided to play a ring game on PokerStars. I bought in for the minimum at the $1/$2 NL table ($40) and started playing. Immediatly off the bat I recognized the fish and then avoided playing the rocks. Anyways, about 30 minutes in, I've gotten my stack up to a respectable $130 or so when the following hand comes up.

You poker aficionados, try to figure out what hand people had. I'll explain what happens, and then you can click the link to see what happened. (Note: This hand looks really weak-tight the way I played it, but the table image I was projecting was a weak-tight player... I'll explain more later.)

Roy is in late position. UTG has called BB. Roy calls the BB ($2). The button (new player) reraises minimum. Big blind folds, and UTG (a very solid player who plays pot odds) calls. Roy calls.

Flop comes down 982. (98 are suited spades). BB bets $4, Roy smooth-calls. Button raises to $12. BB and Roy both call. Turn comes an offsuit 3. UTG and Roy both check. Button reraises to $42, then UTG goes all-in for $200. Roy, agonizing on what to do, requests Time and uses his whole time bank before throwing away his hand. Button calls.

What did everyone have?

Roy had 22 which caught a set off the flop. UTG mucked his hand, but Roy is willing to bet his life he had JT spades the way he played that hand. Button has... AA. Roy would of tripled up to $420 instead of sitting around with $110. That was my new iPod! Damn!

Here was my reasoning for this hand:

The preflop play was pretty standard stuff. Nothing too fancy. Now, I had been on a pretty hot streak of cards (I must of doubled up at least twice in the last ten hands), and I was opening and stealing a lot of pots, so I definitely had a very aggressive outlook. However, I had played very weak-tight when I first got to the table (this works well if you look like a weaker player than you really are against solid players), so I was looking to play this hand kind of weak-tight.

Now, the way I saw it, UTG opening off that flop with that weak bet smelled of either a monster (a set) or he was drawing. A simple pair would of had to bet it more in early position against an aggressive player behind him to push him out. The small bet was almost asking to be called; building pot odds seemed to be his plan. My smooth-call was an acknowledgement that he might be drawing. I wanted to see a safe turn card before trying to extract value from this hand. What surprised me was the reraise from button. The button was a new player so I was unsure what he was doing here, but I managed to place him one one of two hands: either drawing spades or straight or overpairs. There was no way he reraised on the button with the minimum, asking to be called, with a 9 or an 8 in his hand. There was the slight possibility that he had the higher set, so I kept that in mind. When UTG smooth-called, I eliminated the possibility that he had the set, so I placed UTG on JT spades.

The turn comes a safe card, which was exactly what I was hoping for. UTG checks (a dead giveaway that he's drawing) and I check behind him. At this point, I have no idea what's going to happen and I want to extract value from this hand. I expect a raise of maybe $20 from the button given the pot odds and then a smoothcall from UTG ... then I would push the rest of my chips in. However, when button raises $42 (this is roughly the size of the pot!) and UTG goes all-in, my world goes in for a loop.

My worry is not particularly from the UTG all-in; I've placed him on a straight and flush draw (at best), so my worry is to be up against button. If button has overpair, which I am almost CERTAIN he has at this point, then I'm roughly a 66% favorite to win the pot going into the river. But here's the catch. I've invested only $16 in the pot. This is where my lack of experience in pot odds factors into a really bad decision by me. I decide that investing 9x what I've invested in the pot is a bad move, especially if my read is dead wrong, which I'm starting to question given the huge bet and the reraise all-in. In retrospect now, it was basically risking $110 to triple up 2/3 of the time... not a bad risk/reward ratio. Damn. If only I had called...

Oh well. But in retospect, everything is 20/20. When that huge bet and reraise sat in front of me, my low set seemed like a really weak hand to be making a move with. Even if my read was completely correct, I thought I was a bigger underdog than a favorite (but now I know I was a 66% favorite.. damn!

Edit: Talked to Terrence and we both decided I was a moron. Although I'm not as gung-ho about sets as he is (I've been busted tons of times with set vs. set in the all-in fests), I should of called here. I'm a moron.